Fun Swell but Morning Fog | Socal Weekly Forecast

Overview

 

11/5/21-11/11/21 – Another fun week of swell is in store this week as more WNW and south swell are expected. What would be some classic fall days of combo swell, most mornings look to see thick marine layer and possibly fog. Despite these non-ideal conditions, there will still be lots of fun waves to track down with mostly clean conditions.

 

To start things with the South Pacific, we have two decent rounds of south swell on the way. The first of these swells will peak Friday the 5th, and taper off into the weekend. The second will be a few feet larger for select breaks, and peak into Monday the 8th. This swell will hold steadily Tuesday the 9th, and slowly begin its easing trend.

 

Now to the North Pacific, where we’ve seen quite the fall so far in terms of swell production for this time of year. The biggest WNW swell of the forecast will peak Friday the 5th, and drop steadily into the weekend. This swell will be mixing in with that fun-sized south swell, so that should be a good day at the combo breaks. We’ll see smaller WNW energy through the workweek, which is still storm dependent. These next WNW swells won’t be as big as the swell peaking on the 5th. 

 

Kind of a bleak week of weather for the coasts through this forecast. The mornings are going to be dominated by thick marine layer clouds and possibly even fog. The good news is that the mornings will still see light winds. Also, most afternoons look to stay pretty light, so keep that in mind especially with the deep high tides each morning. Drizzle is possible Tuesday, as a dying storm system nears the region, but no measurable precipitation is expected.

 

At the end of the forecast, a big warmup is looking likely, with even periods of offshore flow. Details are still uncertain, but this event looks possible sometime around the 11th and into next week’s forecast. 

 

Best Bets 

 

– Friday’s afternoon tide drop as combo of WNW and south swell peak. Leftover swell for the weekend. 

– More south swell and minor NW swell mix to start the workweek, but not ideal conditions.

– Watch the deep high tide mid to late mornings throughout the forecast.

 

 

 

Day to Day Breakdown 

 

Friday the 5th: 3-5+ feet 

One of the best days in the week. Combo spots and wintertime points will be best, especially with the dropping tide in the afternoon. Both WNW and south swell peak. Morning winds will be calm, but with a 6.6ft high tide at 9:30am. Afternoon winds look light, so waiting for that tide drop is most likely the call. 

 

Saturday the 6th: 3-4+ feet 

WNW and south swell begin easing. The morning will see the most energy, but another deep 6.6ft high tide around 10am will slow things down. Luckily the afternoon winds will remain on the lighter side again, so the tide drop in the afternoon will be the best window. 

 

Sunday the 7th: 2-4 feet 

Leftover mix of old combo swells, but a new round of small WNW and medium sized south swell will start building. It doesn’t look like it’ll be as good of a window as Friday/Saturday, but the afternoon tide drop will be the call. Afternoon winds will be a tad stronger, but not by much. 

 

Monday the 8th: 3-5 feet 

Combo of swells peak, but the new south swell will be dominant for most spots across the region. There should be a few corners at the combo breaks, and the south facing summer breaks should be fairly fun. Possibly light onshore wind on it in the mornings, but it will be manageable. Afternoon is again in play as winds look to stay relatively light. 

 

Tuesday the 9th: 3-5 feet 

South swell holds, and remains the dominant swell of the mix. NW energy bottoms out. A new NW swell may show late, but it most likely won’t show up until Wednesday. Some models have been trending unfavorable in terms of local winds, so keep an eye on possible textured conditions in the morning and through the day. There’s still a chance of things remaining clean.

 

Wednesday the 10th: 2-4 feet 

If enough NW can make it in, it’ll be a fun day of waves for most breaks. The combo spots may be the call as fun-sized south swell sticks around some. As of now, the morning winds are looking like they’ll be more favorable. 

 

Thursday the 11th: 2-3 feet 

Smallest day in the forecast, but things could be clean. There will just be leftover south swell and that NW swell mix left in the water. The marine layer may finally move out, with the possibility of offshore flow. 

 

Long Range Forecast 

 

Compared to what we’ve seen from the North Pacific these past few weeks, things are looking like they’ll mellow down a bit. Doesn’t mean we won’t see any ridable surf from there, but most models suggest activity will die down. We already have 2 south swells in route to SoCal, and models continue to indicate more is possible out the back. As of now, I think it’s safe to say that we can see rideable surf from the South Pacific through at least the end of November. 

 

Weatherwise, a fairly strong warming trend for this time of year is becoming more likely, starting around the end of next week. Upper-level high pressure looks to dominate the region by this time. A Santa Ana wind event looks possible sometime around then too.

 

Medium to long range temperature outlook: NWS Climate Prediction Center

 

– Jax Richards @jax6street


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