Overview 

12.17.21-12.23.21 – Hope everyone enjoyed that storm system last week as well as the cooler temperatures we’ve been having as of late. Although there were some waves to track down, it hasn’t been ideal for most spots across SoCal. This week isn’t looking much better, as only small to fun zone waves show throughout the forecast. 

Starting off with Friday the 17th, we’ll see a fun little combo of both WNW and minor south swell. Both of those swells will taper off into the weekend and get pretty weak by Sunday. The next swell to watch will be a possible small size WNW around Tuesday the 21st. Lower confidence on this swell right now as swell models haven’t been in great agreement. Depending on the location and track of the next storm, there could be some windswell mixing in too. As of now, it’s not looking like much but still worth watching. 

Our cooler weather pattern is going to be sticking around this week, with even the slight chance of more precipitation! To start off the forecast on Friday we will see a weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event. Clean conditions with offshore flow is expected, with select areas seeing offshore winds linger into the afternoon. Offshore flow will stick around Saturday morning but will be weaker than Friday. Fair weather will persist until around Tuesday the 21st, as the next storm system could near the region. Lots of disagreement with the weather models on this system though, but the chance of seeing more measurable precipitation is there. A few model runs were showing the possibility of an atmospheric river tapping into more subtropical moisture to our south and bringing a warmer surge of moisture with heavier rain. Very low confidence on this, but the potential is there for SoCal to see a wet pattern ahead. Likely continuing past this week’s forecast and into Christmas. 

Best Bets 

– Friday will be the best day in the forecast with offshore flow and small combo swell.

– Leftover swell for the weekend with favorable conditions. 

– Not much swell expected for the workweek, but keeping an eye on more precipitation!

Day to Day Breakdown 

Friday the 17th: 2-4 feet 

Get on it this day if you are looking for a surf. A fun little combo of WNW and south swell will show along with a weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event. Best window of the day will be the mid to late morning tide drop as winds stay offshore. 

Saturday the 18th: 2-3 feet 

Smaller than Friday, but there should be a few leftover peaks to be had. Both WNW and south swell lose steam, and the morning high tide will slow things down a bit. Target a high tide sandbar or wait for the tide to drop. Morning winds will stay favorable, and will remain on the lighter side for most of the day. 

Sunday the 19th: 1-2 feet 

Things get pretty small…again. Not much to ride out there, especially with the deep high tide for the morning. Morning winds will be light, and the afternoon looks to remain pretty light too. 

Monday the 20th: 1-3 feet 

Similar to Sunday. Another small day of waves, with some more NW energy sneaking in later in the day. It won’t be a lot though. Light winds most of the day. 

Tuesday the 21st: 2-3 feet 

Watching the possibility of more swell, but again it’s not looking like a lot. We’ll see a little more NW swell make it in and maybe a little bit of localized windswell. Later in the day we could see rain move in depending on what the upcoming storm system does, most likely not showing until Wednesday. 

Wednesday the 22nd: 2-3 feet 

NW swell continues but remains small. Lots of uncertainty with how much rain we will receive (if any) as well as the local conditions. They may trend unfavorably but will be worth keeping an eye on.

Thursday the 23rd: 1-3 feet 

Another day of small surf. Not a whole lot of swell is expected. Still watching the storm system in the North Pacific. More uncertainty than usual due to the widespread solutions the models are showing. 

Long Range Forecast 

Not a whole lot has changed since last week’s report. The number one thing on my radar right now is the upcoming period of potentially unsettled weather for SoCal. It’s still a ways out, but the best chance of seeing another appreciable storm/swell is around the Christmas Eve/Day timeframe.

– Jax Richards @jax6street