Small but Fun | Socal Weekly Forecast

Overview

2/11/22-2/17/22: Small but fun sized surf will continue through this week’s forecast. Select summer spots that receive southerly angled swells will start off a bit bigger with a few good waves to be had over the weekend. This continued run of early season Southern Hemisphere swell is one of the main swells in store this week, showing best size Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th before its gradual decline. During the same time there will also be some WNW groundswell showing, which will help out the combo/winter breaks. Then midweek we will see a larger but shorter period NW swell top out Tuesday the 15th and into Wednesday the 16th. Overall, plenty of opportunity to get some waves despite the surf still on the smaller side.

SoCal is in the midst of a pretty impressive winter heatwave that will continue through this weekend. Thursday the 10th saw some record breaking temperatures for the month of February, as the heat made it all the way to the coast thanks to the Santa Ana winds. The weekend won’t be as hot as it was then, but it will still be well above average for this time of year. Heading into the workweek, temperatures will drop dramatically as a quick moving low pressure system is expected to pass by the area. Conditions look to deteriorate Tuesday the 15th along with a slight chance of showers that night. By the end of the forecast conditions look to improve once again as the low exits the region.

Best Bets

– Target the weekend for the biggest/best surf as both south swell and WNW swell peak.

– Warm weather and favorable conditions will make the weekend feel more like summer.

– Midweek holds a little bit of potential as shorter period NW swell pulses up, but there may be unfavorable conditions then.

Small but fun 🙂 Photo courtesy @jamesferrel_

Day to Day Breakdown

Friday the 11th: 2-4 feet

One of the best days of the week to target. Our round of early season Southern Hemisphere swell will top out along with a new WNW groundswell. Most areas will see fun waves with the mix of swells in the water. The morning will be nice and clean with light winds, and the afternoon shouldn’t see too much texture on it as well.

Saturday the 12th: 2-4 feet

Another fun day of surf as the mix of swell continues. Size from both south swell and WNW swell will hold fairly steady for most of the day, but losing a bit of steam late. Clean conditions are expected for the morning due to light offshore flow, followed by a weak onshore breeze. Some areas may stay fairly clean all day. Saturday is also looking like the warmest day of the weekend.

Sunday the 13th: 2-3 feet

Both south swell and WNW swell will be on the easing trend. The morning is looking like the call as size shows best then. A little bit more of an onshore seabreeze looks to pick up in the afternoon too.

Monday the 14th: 1-3 feet

Even smaller surf than Sunday as both swells bottom out. Top southerly exposures may see better sets as that energy eases more gradually than the NW energy. Early morning high tide may be an issue for most spots. The wind may trend slightly unfavorably as light south wind picks up.

Tuesday the 15th: 2-4 feet

Size picks up as a fresh pulse of localized NW windswell moves in through the day. Even with more size in the water, it is not looking like a great day to get waves due to stronger onshore flow. Slight chance of showers late along with cooler conditions.

Wednesday the 16th: 3-4+ feet

More size in the water as short period NW windswell peaks early, but morning conditions may not cooperate. It is worth keeping an eye on the winds for a morning session, but keep your hopes low for this day.

Thursday the 17th: 2-3 feet

Surf drops off in size as NW windswell bottoms out. Should be a little bit of background Southern Hemisphere swell in the mix as well. Favorable morning conditions may return.

Long Range Forecast

Nothing too major to report for this week’s long range outlook. As expected, February looks to continue to be slower out of the NPAC which means smaller WNW swells for SoCal. In terms of the South Pacific, we’re not quite in the season yet, so nothing significant is forecasted from there either. Precipitation wise, we are still in a very dry pattern, with no substantial storms on the horizon.

– Jax Richards @jax6street