Solid Week of Surf | Socal Weekly Forecast | 10.22.21 - 10.28.21

Overview

We got a pumping week of surf on the way to SoCal, thanks to activity in both the North and South Pacific. An extremely active pattern has taken shape in the North Pacific, where it’s expected to deliver multiple rounds of solid surf to the region, as well as some much needed precipitation to the entire state! Seeing this type of action in October is very rare, so we’ll take it!

The first WNW swell of the bunch peaked on Thursday the 21st, and will linger into Friday the 22nd. The second larger but more selective WNW swell will peak across the region Saturday the 23rd. The third and last major swell of the bunch will be the largest of the 3 swells, and will be the storm to deliver precipitation to the region. More details on this storm weather-wise will be in the next paragraph. This last swell will build through the day Monday the 25th, peak Tuesday the 26th, and start easing Wednesday the 27th. This last swell will also have more localized windswell along with it, so breaks will likely be a bit more jumbled than the first two swells.

Now to the South Pacific where we saw a nice storm system push through last week, resulting in a medium sized south swell peaking on Tuesday the 26th. Overall, there’s going to be lots of swell in the water throughout this week’s forecast. More details on each individual swell will be on the day to day breakdown.

The big story this week weather-wise is the significant storm pattern in the NPAC. NorCal is going to be the bullseye as it is expected to get the brunt of the precipitation, but SoCal should get the tail end of the last storm. This atmospheric river should dump about 0.25”-0.50” of rain for most coastal regions. More precipitation is possible farther north into Ventura and Santa Barbara counties which could get over an inch for some locations. Definitely a good soaking for October standards, and our state desperately needs it.

Conditions wise, things aren’t looking ideal, with light onshore winds possible some mornings during the first half of the forecast. Conditions will still be manageable though, as weekend afternoon winds don’t look to pick up too much. Conditions will then deteriorate further on Monday the 25th, as the weakening storm system makes it into our region. After the storm passes there should be some cleaner windows in the days ahead, so keep an eye on that as those days could be the best days in the forecast.

Best Bets

– An extremely active and rare NPAC pattern taking shape this week.

– A major precipitation event is forecasted in NorCal for October. Socal will get the tail end of the weakening storm system Monday the 25th.

– Biggest and best days of surf will be Tuesday/Wednesday (26th and 27th) as a combo of solid WNW swell and south swell peaks.

– But… still looking fun over the weekend as a slightly smaller and more selective WNW swell peaks Saturday the 23rd, with just slightly unfavorable winds.

Pumping LA County. Image Courtesy James Ferrell @jamesferrell_

Day to Day Breakdown

Friday the 22nd: 2-4 feet

The first WNW swell of the bunch lingers, but shows fun surf across the region. The next WNW swell may start trickling in late for areas farther north, but probably only showing noticeable energy for Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. Afternoon west winds will be on it too. Morning winds will be favorable, so some fun leftovers will be had then.

Saturday the 23rd: 4-6 feet (bigger at select winter spots, and smaller at most summer spots)

Selective WNW swell builds quickly over night Friday and tops out Saturday morning. Size should hold relatively solid throughout the day. Important to note that winter breaks will see larger size, but summer south facing breaks will see less size. This is due to the steeper angle and longer period than the previous swell. Models continue to indicate light onshore winds in the morning, but eyeing a possible cleanup later morning. Keep an eye on the afternoon winds as well, things aren’t looking too strong for some locations.

Sunday the 24th: 2-4 feet

WNW swell is down, but still showing fun surf as the energy fades. Winds may be similar to Saturday, but there’s a possibility things could be slightly more favorable. The morning looks to be the best compared to the afternoon.

Monday the 25th: 4-6 feet

New swell fills in, but unfavorable conditions and rain are likely as our weakening atmospheric river impacts the region. We’ll see a building mix of Southern Hemisphere swell, localized windswell due to the storm system, and our solid WNW groundswell. Size will be biggest late, but unfavorable conditions look to persist all day.

Tuesday the 26th: 5-8 feet

Largest day of the forecast. Both Southern Hemisphere swell and WNW groundswell will be peaking, along with some leftover short to mid period NW windswell. Things are looking jumbled after Monday’s onshores, but the morning winds are trending favorable. There should be a window as things clean up. Don’t count out an afternoon session either.

Wednesday the 27th: 4-6+ feet

Another day of locally solid surf. A bit smaller than Tuesday, but conditions should be cleaner. Could be a really good day of surf as the combo of WNW and south swell sticks around. The morning window will be the call.

Thursday the 28th: 2-4 feet

Lingering combo of swells shows fun size. Morning conditions look to remain favorable, so another morning of clean surf looks likely.

Long Range Forecast

Activity in the South and North Pacific look to die down a lot compared to our action-packed week of swell. Definitely rideable, and maybe some more favorable conditions, but if you’re looking to get in the water, this is the week to do it.

– Jax Richards @jax6street