February 6-9: We have a pretty standard wintertime setup across the Pacific this week with two powerful lows located to the north. One is still in the Gulf of Alaska while the other is much closer to home as it just moved across the coast of British Columbia. The closer one brought a cold front through the area which shifted winds to out of the northwest on Sunday. These strong winds are bringing a wind swell from out of the NNW which started Sunday but will last through the first half of the week as high pressure to the west keeps winds from out of the north.

 Mid-week Winds:

Along with the dying winds, the wind swell should weaken and be replaced by a dominate ground swell through the week. This will make for better surfing conditions from Monday Evening onward as 12-13 second wave periods return with decent sized ground swells from the WNW. South facing beaches will have shorter wave heights at around 1-2 ft, but primary wave periods still look good at around 13 seconds.  Winds die down pretty significantly by Tuesday which will lessen the impact of secondary wind waves out of the NNW. Tuesday looks like the best day so far as ground waves begin to weaken starting Wednesday and into Thursday.

BEST BETS

• NNW winds on Monday will create onshore winds towards San Diego and offshore winds for Santa Barbara. A dominant wind swell from the WNW will form with 4-6+ ft wind swells for west facing beaches with south facing to expect 2-4ft swells. This will be the best day for intermediate/advanced surfers wanting big waves.
• Tuesday looks like a good day for beginners with light offshore winds from the northeast across the entire coast. 2-3 ft ground swells expected south of LA and 1-2 ft ground swells to the north. Good periods around 11-13 seconds expected in both locations.
• North winds weaken further through the week, eventually transitioning into Santa Ana winds by Friday. WNW ground swell will also weaken to 1-2ft waves for south facing beaches with 2-3 ft waves for west facing beaches on Wednesday/Thursday. Very clean conditions with long periods of 13-14 seconds.

Day-by-day for SoCal

MONDAY

Strong NNW winds will continue on Monday at around 15-20 mph across the coast. Combined ground and wind swells will reach up to 6+ ft for west facing shores from Orange County down to San Diego with lower wind swells around 2-3ft for southern beach faces.

This looks like another poor surf day especially for beginners. Conditions will definitely be challenging on Monday, but we should see winds come down a little in the evening making it somewhat better. Wave periods will be around 11 seconds across the area with high temps near 70 for LA. Sunny conditions are expected across the area with San Diego seeing afternoon temps in the low-60s. The Santa Barbara area will be in the mid-60s for afternoon highs making for a chilly day especially with winds.

TUESDAY

Winds come down significantly on Tuesday along with the wind swell. Offshore winds from the northeast are expected during the morning but then we will see a transition to light onshore to variable/no winds across the area by the afternoon.

This will leave a dominant ground swell out of WNW with a 12-13 second period. West facing beaches should see wave heights around 2-4 ft max toward San Diego.  South facing beaches will see heights around 1-2 ft with lowest heights toward Santa Barbara. Good wave periods expected across the region of 11-13 seconds. The Sun will be out and temps will be warmer in the low-70s for LA with upper 60s for San Diego and Santa Barbara making for one of the best surf days for beginners!

WEDNESDAY

Winds will remain weak around 5 mph but transition to onshore from the northwest across all areas except Santa Barbara where the winds stay offshore. Wind swell still shouldn’t be too prevalent during the day due to how light speeds will be.

The ground swell will stay weak but dominate out of the WNW making for wave heights that are slightly shorter than Tuesdays. 1-2 ft wave heights are expected for south facing beaches with 2-3 ft ground swells for west facing beaches. Highest swells will be near the Mexican Border and possibly near Oxnard. Periods stay nice at around 12-13 seconds across the area making for clean conditions.  Highs will be 2-3 degrees warmer than Tuesday across the area. So far this looks like another good day for beginners.

THURSDAY

Thursday appears to be a continuation of Wednesday in terms of the weak but dominant ground swell out of the west. San Diego and Oxnard should have the biggest waves at around 2-3 ft while south facing beaches will see 1-2 ft ground swells.

Winds will stay pretty weak around 0-5 mph during the morning from the northeast for areas north of LA while areas south appear to have no winds. During the afternoon we will likely see Santa Ana winds pick up a bit especially between Santa Barbra and Los Angeles where they could be a fast as 15 mph. This will help warm temps up for Thursday and beyond. Los Angeles will likely hit 80 degrees while San Diego and Santa Barbara should top out in the mid-70s under sunshine.

INSIGHTS BEYOND THURSDAY

It looks like next weekend we could see the arrival of another dominant wind swell from the second storm in the Gulf of Alaska. It’s hard to tell what winds are going to do since models are diverging, but right now they seem to stay light from out of the north. Looks like it could be a very promising weekend!

NOAA (San Diego)

MONDAY

Gusts of up to 25 knots will come from the north early on, reducing to 10-15 knots from the northwest later in the day. Wind waves are expected to be around 3 feet in the morning, and lower than 2 feet later on. Swell is predicted to be around 5-8 feet every 10 seconds from the northwest.

MONDAY NIGHT

The wind from the north will be blowing at 10 to 15 knots, shifting to an easterly direction after midnight. There will be waves below 2 feet, while the swell will be coming from the west at 4 to 6 feet with a 13 second period.

TUESDAY

The wind is expected to be from the northeast at 10 knots in the morning and will shift to the northwest during the afternoon. The wind wave heights are expected to be two feet or less. The swell is expected to be from the west at 3 to 5 feet for every 12 seconds.

TUESDAY EVENING

Winds are expected to be coming from the north at 10 knots, with gusts up to 15 for the evening, turning to a variable direction under 10 knots. Waves of 2 feet or less and a westward swell of 2 to 3 feet.

WEDNESDAY

The wind is predicted to be under 10 knots with a shift to the northwest in the afternoon. Wave heights are expected to be approximately 2 feet or less. Swell size from the west will be around 2 to 3 feet.

WEDNESDAY EVENING

The wind is forecasted to be from the northwest at 10 knots in the evening, eventually decreasing to below 10 knots. The accompanying waves are expected to be no more than 2 feet and the swell from the west will be 2 to 3 feet.

THURSDAY

A breeze from the east at 10 knots, with gusts up to 15 knots in the morning, will create wind waves of about 2 feet or less. West swells of 2 to 3 feet are expected.

THURSDAY NIGHT

East winds will be between 10 to 15 knots with waves of 2 feet or less, potentially rising to 3 feet after midnight. West swell of 2 to 3 feet.

That’s it for this forecast. Thanks!

-Daniel Grigsby