Southern California Pre-Thanksgiving Forecast

Overview 

 

11.19.21 – 11.25.21 – As expected, a much slower week of waves is in store for this week’s forecast. The first few days will be the best chance to get some fun surf before things get tiny for the majority of the workweek. Friday the 19th we’ll see a fun sized south swell in the water with minimal NW windswell.

 

Into the weekend, we’ll see a slight bump in shorter period NW swell, mixing in with that easing south swell. Even though the weekend will be pretty small, it’ll be better than most of the workweek as things drop off even further. We may see a new pulse of WNW swell around Thanksgiving, but right now that’s looking pretty small too. 

 

Weather-wise, things are looking somewhat better in terms of cooler weather and precipitation (at least compared to last week). We’ll start off cool with low clouds for the start of the weekend, but by Sunday things will warm up a lot as another weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected. Sunday should see another day of widespread 80 degree temperatures across the coastal areas. There may be some high level clouds spreading across the region at this time too. Monday will still be warm, but it will be cooler than Sunday. Then by midweek we may actually see the chance of scattered showers with cooler weather. Models have been bouncing around a lot with the placement/movement of the trough. So at the moment, chances of seeing any measurable precipitation are pretty low during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. By Thanksgiving things will clear out with mild temps for most areas. 

 

Best Bets 

 

– Target Friday/Saturday/Sunday for a small combo of swells before things get tiny midweek.

– Santa Ana winds due Sunday, but swell will be on the easing trend with not much size.

– Have a good Thanksgiving!

 

Day to Day Breakdown 

 

Friday the 19th: 2-4 feet 

One of the bigger days in the forecast, especially for south facing summer breaks. The main swell in the water will be a fun sized south swell, with not much NW energy mixing in. Even though the morning high tide will slow things down for most breaks, this will be the best window as winds will be light. Just a light west wind expected to pick up for the afternoon. 

 

Saturday the 20th: 2-4 feet 

A bit less southerly energy, but a new NW swell will pick up some. It should be a fun little combo for the breaks that receive both swells. Finding a high tide sandbar during the morning with light wind could be the best call. Another afternoon with just light west wind. 

 

Sunday the 21st: 2-3 feet 

Both south swell and NW swell mix ease, with a few leftover peaks to be had. The morning will see moderate offshore flow for most areas, and for some, offshore flow could continue into the afternoon. Keep an eye on your local winds this day, especially in the afternoon as winds may trend onshore for some areas. 

 

Monday the 22nd: 1-2 feet 

Surf gets really small. Just minor leftovers of south swell and NW energy. The morning will start off clean, followed by a light northwesterly wind. Some areas have the chance of remaining clean through the day. 

 

Tuesday the 23rd: 1-2 feet 

Repeat of Monday swell wise, which is pretty much flat. The weather will cool off, along with a slight chance of showers Tuesday night. 

 

Wednesday the 24th: 1-3 feet 

Pretty much a repeat of Monday/Tuesday. We may see a slight increase in shorter period NW swell, but it’s looking minor. A slight chance of showers through the day.

 

Thursday the 25th: 2-3 feet 

Happy Thanksgiving! Not a whole lot of swell expected, but a new WNW swell may show a touch more, bringing the possibility of fun waves for the morning. Conditions may improve too. 

 

Long Range Forecast 

 

No noteworthy swells are on the horizon at the moment. Both the North and South Pacific are relatively quiet, and will continue to be that way in the short term.

 

Some good news though, there seems to be better agreement that activity may begin to ramp up in the North Pacific towards the end of the month. The action will start off in the far northwest pacific and eventually shift more east towards SoCal. This means we could see a more active period of storms heading into December. WNW swell and local precipitation are possible with this upcoming pattern change, but obviously this is super uncertain as things are about 2 plus weeks out from that timeframe. It’s worth noting that not all weather models are agreeing on this, but there’s enough consistency to say that we’ll at least see increased activity in the North Pacific heading into December compared to what we’re seeing right now. 

 

In terms of winter as a whole, not much has changed since the last update. As La Niña continues for at least the next few months, things are still looking drier than normal for SoCal. That being said, this outlook doesn’t mean we won’t see a few active periods of wet weather and some rounds of solid WNW swells. Let’s hope that happens as we head towards the more active time of year in the North Pacific.

 

– Jax Richards @jax6street

 


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